FxPaul

Math in finance or vice versa

Archive for November 22nd, 2011

Markov Chain for historical volatility

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In previous post we used Markov Chain to discover a behavior of historical volatility and find out the 3/2 rule for ups and downs of random variable.

Now let’s construct more complicated model with the following volatility changes as states in chain:

  1. Less than -25%: denote it as -100.
  2. From -25% to -15% : -20.
  3. From -15% to -5% : -10.
  4. From -5% to 5% : 0.
  5. From 5% to 15% : 10.
  6. From 15% to 25% : 20.
  7. More than 25% : 100.

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Written by fxpaul

November 22, 2011 at 22:32

Posted in trading math

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Markov chain for Geometric Brownian Motion parameters

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A Markov chain is a discrete-time random process with Markov property. Its components are states and probability transitions between them. Markov property states that the probability of next states depends only on the current state.

So Markov chain is a set of states and all transition probabilities between states.

Simple chain for drift

Let’s assume that estimation of drift parameter might lead to the following 2 states:

  1. Positive, i.e. drift is greater or equal zero
  2. Negative, i.e. drift is less than zero

So, one could construct Markov chain for these states as it shown below.

Simple Markov Chain

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Written by fxpaul

November 22, 2011 at 22:30

Posted in trading math

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